Analyzing the French first Round- Keshava Guha

On the French election-
While Sarko and Sego surprised no one by going into the second round in that order, it is highly debatable as to what to chance Segolene Royal has of upstaging the favourite, Sarkozy and becoming President.

My take on it? After analyzing the first round results, I feel that sadly Royal has almost no chance in hell. For her to win, more than one of the following needs to happen-

1. Jean Marie le Pen voters decide that Sarko isn't nearly right-wing enough and don't vote.

2. At least 35% of Bayrou voters who turn up vote for her.

3. Over 90% of those who voted for the six defeated left-wingers (five of whom have already come out in favour of Royal) turn up to vote for her- at least this crowd are guaranteed not to back Sarkozy. This situation isn't too likely, but it's the most likely one here.

4. Le Monde reveals that Sarko is a cokehead.

5. William Rees-Mogg predicts an election win for Sarko.

But seriously, the numbers and odds are stacked against Segolene Royal. 29% of the population voted for either Bayrou or le Pen- both these sets are most likely to vote Sarkozy, with all le Pen voters and the majority of Bayrou voters adamantly against the Socialist Party. Apart from his devoted supporters, the 31% who voted for him in the first round, Sarko needs just a further 19% to become the next President of the Fifth Republic.

Ideology stats- if one counts Bayrou as right of centre, which isn't entirely unfair, then a whopping 63.57% of voters went for right-wing candidates. If one counts him as centrist, which is how he advertises himself (a believer in what leftists often call the "mystical Third Way")the number falls to 45% right-wing, 18.57% centrist, and a mere 36.43% left-wing. So it's clearly up to the Bayrou voters not merely to reject Sarkozy but to en masse vote against him, since they won't be seeing it as voting for Royal, or they would have picked her in the first round.

The other reason I think the scores are unlikely to be reversed is because so few people didn't turn up to vote, and the turnout was especially high among Royal's key constituents- the urban working class and all immigrants, the majority of whom voted for her and all of whom will vote for her in Round two. My feeling is that those who stayed home, unless they have a particularly virulent hatred of Sarkozy, will do so again.

Not that it is important, but who do I support? I usually describe myself either as a "liberal" or a "centrist", since my social beliefs are left-wing (legalization of euthanasia, cannabis and prostitution, liberal abortion laws, gay marriage, increased migration around the world etc., no death penalty)and my economic ones are centrist to (very) moderately right-wing (moderate direct taxes, free-market domination, free trade, government health, education and transport) with the exception of my green environment views. I don't love either candidate (Royal is both too socialist and too incoherent for my taste) but with this choice I suppose it would be conscionable not to go for SEGO over Sarko.